Belgian TSO warns of fluctuations in renewable generation and calls for more flexibility

Just like last year, Belgian grid operator Elia has issued a warning about periods of power oversupply, primarily caused by solar generation. Fluctuations in weather or power demand could threaten grid stability. In many European countries, solar PV capacity continues to grow, while power demand remains flat. When comparing 2024 demand to previous years, it’s still significantly lower. French grid operator RTE released a summary last week indicating that power demand (adjusted for temperature variations) was nearly 1% higher than in 2023. However, it remains well below levels seen in the previous decade: between 2011 and 2019, annual electricity demand in France averaged around 480 TWh, while last year it was approximately 450 TWh.

There was no shortage of sunshine last week. Much of Western Europe saw clear blue skies. In the UK, a new record was set for solar power generation. Germany was the exception, with some cloud cover, particularly at the start of the week. This contributed to widening spreads between Dutch and German power prices. On Monday, Germany was on average 15 euros more expensive than the Netherlands. Wind output was below average but still helped to suppress the prices. On Tuesday, prices dropped to -54 €/MWh, and on Sunday, two hours dipped below -100 €/MWh. The average spot price for the week was 66.1 €/MWh.

Meanwhile, financial markets across the board slumped following president Trump’s announcement of new import tariffs. Commodity prices fell sharply, including gas. The TTF May contract dropped nearly 5 euros to 36.4 €/MWh. CO2 followed suit, falling 5 euros to close the week at 63.8 €/EUA. Coal prices also slipped by 5 euros to 88.3 €/Ton. As a result, clean spark spreads for the individual summer months improved: May and June both increased by 1.5 euros, reaching -35 €/MWh and -31 €/MWh respectively.