Markets fear trade war between U.S. and China

Last week, the average spot price was 73 €/MWh. From Monday through Friday, prices consistently dipped during the solar hours. Outside those periods, gas and coal-fired plants were the marginal fuel type. Solar output remained strong until Sunday, when it began to fade.

The threat of a prolonged trade war between China and the United States created volatility across global markets. Traders sold off TTF gas, and prices fell by around 3 euros. The May gas contract closed at 33.5 €/MWh. In contrast, CO2 prices rose: the December 2025 contract gained 1 euro, ending the week at 64.8 €/EUA. Coal prices remained more or less stable, narrowing the cost gap between gas and coal plants. By the end of the week, that difference was only around 3 euros for the summer period. Clean spark spreads rose sharply. The spark spread for May and June increased by 7 and 6 euros respectively, reaching approximately -28 €/MWh and -25 €/MWh.

French utility EDF announced it expects annual nuclear generation in France to reach between 350 and 370 TWh next year. Previously, EDF had projected 315 to 345 TWh for 2024. Despite falling gas prices, the price gap between France and neighboring countries (including the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany) widened again last week. As seen last year, France has a significant power surplus and is struggling to export it. The price difference between Germany and France averaged nearly 40 €/MWh. So far, the French grid operator has not announced any structural export restrictions for the coming weeks or months.