
CAL-26 Power Prices Steady Despite Rising Global Tensions
Short term:
This week, Dutch power prices rose by 18.5%, settling at 85.92 €/MWh. The increase was largely driven by very high prices in the first half of the week, which saw significantly lower wind generation across the Netherlands, Germany, and the Nordics. In the Netherlands, this drop in wind output in the first half of the week was exacerbated by reduced capacity due to ongoing maintenance, with several key assets — including Eemshaven A, Eemshaven B, and Maasvlakte 3 — unavailable during this period. This tightening of domestic supply conditions, along with similar maintenance-related constraints and low wind production in Germany, pushed prices higher for both the countries. As a result, prices spiked, with the evening peak on Monday, 8 September reaching as high as 383.23 €/MWh for the Netherlands and 413,66 €/MWh for Germany . Although wind generation improved significantly in the latter half of the week, bringing down daily average prices, the sharp price surge during the first three days — with averages between 115.45 €/MWh and 134.90 €/MWh— was enough to push the weekly average to 85.92 €/MWh.
Electricity (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
Long term:
The CAL-26 power contract held steady week-on-week, settling at €84.8/MWh, despite heightened geopolitical tensions. Israel’s strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar — a key gas supplier to Europe — raised winter supply concerns, while Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace escalated NATO tensions. The EU is also weighing new sanctions on Russian banks and energy firms. Nevertheless, strong EU gas storage levels and the easing of maintenance on Norway’s continental shelf provided some market stability. Dutch TTF gas prices edged up by €0.6 to €32.3/MWh, but this was offset by minor declines in both EUA and coal prices. EUA prices dipped by 0.3 €/ton to 77.8 €/ton, while coal prices fell by 0.4 €/ton to 86.2 €/ton.
Weekly changes
Base (€/MWh)
Peak (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
CO2 (€/MWh)
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