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Dutch power prices stay firm for two consecutive weeks, driving up front-month contracts

Short term:

Last week, Dutch power prices cleared at 108.9 €/MWh, which was 7.2 €/MWh higher than the previous week. The baseload prices for the first three days of the week cleared above 120 €/MWh, with two consecutive evening hours on the 13th and 14th of October clearing above 275 €/MWh and 325 €/MWh, respectively. For the rest of the week, baseload prices stayed above 90 €/MWh, with Sunday clearing the lowest at 70 €/MWh.

The high prices last week were mainly driven by low renewable energy generation, similar to the previous week. Renewable performance showed a mixed trend between the German and Dutch markets. German wind generation decreased by around 30%, while Dutch wind increased by approximately 7%. Solar generation in Germany rose by about 15%, whereas Dutch solar output declined by around 5%. Power plant availability remained broadly unchanged between the two weeks. Gas prices moved sideways, with a slight drop of 0.3 €/MWh compared to the previous week, settling at 32.2 €/MWh.

Electricity (€/MWh)

Gas (€/MWh)

Long term:

The front month contracts for the Dutch power price moved up, primarily driven by the recent high spot market results as discussed above. The contracts for NOV-25, DEC-25, and JAN-26 rose by 5.3, 2.2, and 4 €/MWh, respectively. Gas and carbon prices remained largely unchanged for these delivery periods, while coal prices increased by around 5 €/ton across all three contracts.

Further along the curve, the CAL-26 contract for Dutch power prices declined by 0.4 €/MWh to 85.1 €/MWh. In parallel, gas eased by 0.6 €/MWh to 30.8 €/MWh, carbon by 0.3 €/ton to 81.5 €/ton, and coal rose by 4.7 €/MWh to 87.2 €/MWh.

Weekly changes

Base (€/MWh)

Peak (€/MWh)

Gas (€/MWh)

CO2 (€/MWh)

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