Stronger Wind Generation Drives Further Decline in Dutch Power Prices

Continuing the downward trend from last week, Dutch power prices for Week 50 settled at 85.2 €/MWh, marking a week-on-week decline of 9.42 €/MWh. A similar softening was observed across neighboring markets, with Belgium, France, and Germany settling at 83.24 €/MWh, 62.91 €/MWh, and 90.11 €/MWh, reflecting week-on-week declines of 8.13 €/MWh, 1.74 €/MWh, and 20.86 €/MWh, respectively.

The price weakness was largely driven by higher renewable generation across the BENELUX region and Germany. Wind generation in the Netherlands increased to 1.24 TWh, up 43.7% week-on-week, while Germany recorded 4.2 TWh, representing a sharp 81% increase compared to the previous week. Although solar output remains seasonally low due to winter conditions, it still increased week-on-week, rising by 51.6% in the Netherlands and 8.7% in Germany. Temperatures remained above seasonal norms, reducing heating demand and adding to bearish conditions. Stronger wind generation in Germany also contributed to a significant tightening of the NL–DE price spread, which narrowed from 16.35 €/MWh to 4.91 €/MWh this week.

Between Dec 8 and Dec 12, TTF month-ahead gas futures largely traded in a narrow range of €26.6–€27.8/MWh. Prices found modest support from expectations of cooler, more seasonal weather in northwest Europe, lifting expected demand, while broader downside pressure persisted due to ample supply, stable storage levels, and weak global LNG demand. Overall sentiment remained balanced: colder to near-normal weather expected to start in the last week of December while surplus LNG supply capped significant upside, resulting in sideways to slightly firmer price action over the week