Cold Weather Supports Dutch Power Prices Despite Strong Wind Generation

The Dutch Power Price contract for Week 1 of 2026 settled at 80.63 €/MWh, down 1.2 €/MWh compared to the previous week. We observed a significant increase in wind generation, with Germany up nearly 50% week-on-week and the Netherlands up by 17%. Despite this substantial rise in wind output, the weekly contract did not experience a major drop due to very cold temperatures, particularly in France, where temperatures fell well below seasonal norms. The country-weighted average temperature in France reached 0°C, driving higher electricity demand, which combined with low winds created a bullish environment in France, tightening overall system supply, and supporting prices in both the Netherlands and Germany. France’s price cleared at 81.1 €/MWh for the week, higher than both the Netherlands and Germany.
January 1st stood out in particular. Germany experienced exceptionally high wind generation, peaking at nearly 50 GW, alongside reduced demand due to the New Year’s holiday, resulting in very bearish conditions. In contrast, France faced low wind generation and elevated demand driven by cold temperatures, turning the country into a net importer rather than an exporter from core regions. Germany exported to both Netherlands and France on that day as well. This imbalance led to wide price spreads, with Germany clearing at 9.75 €/MWh, the Netherlands at 47.35 €/MWh, and France at 48.68 €/MWh.
Over the past week, TTF edged higher to end of the week near 29 €/MWh. Early-week weakness was reversed as colder late-December forecasts lifted heating demand expectations. Upside remained capped by strong Norwegian supply, steady LNG inflows and comfortable storage levels.