Gas Front End Strengthens as Carbon Extends Rally
Short term:
Dutch power prices averaged 103.5 €/MWh last week, down 7.1 €/MWh week-on-week. Baseload prices ranged from a low of 88.8 €/MWh on Monday to a weekly high of 114.1 €/MWh on Wednesday. Overall, price action was relatively orderly, with volatility lower than in the prior week.
Fundamentals were broadly offsetting compared to the previous week when a few higher-priced days had lifted the weekly average. Wind output declined by around 5% in Germany and approximately 15% in the Netherlands. At the same time, temperatures across Central Western Europe increased by roughly 5°C, supporting higher demand. Solar generation recovered week-on-week after snow coverage had impacted output across most countries in previous week. Gas prices trended higher throughout the week, averaging 32.6 €/MWh, up 3.9 €/MWh week-on-week.
Electricity (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
Long term:
The front end of the TTF gas curve posted strong gains. Feb-26 and Mar-26 contracts rallied by around 8 €/MWh to trade near 36 €/MWh. This was supported by historically low EU storage levels (around 52% full versus 64–79% in recent years) and colder-than-normal near-term weather forecasts. In contrast, the CAL-27 contract was largely unchanged, edging up by 0.8 €/MWh to 25.7 €/MWh. EUA prices continued their upward momentum, settling at 92.0 €/ton, up 2.5 €/ton. This strength fed through to the Dutch power curve, with the CAL-27 contract gaining 2.4 €/MWh to 81.5 €/MWh. Coal prices also firmed, rising by 1.5 €/ton to 83.0 €/ton.
Weekly changes
Base (€/MWh)
Peak (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
CO2 (€/MWh)
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