Renewable Strength Weigh on Power as TTF Prices Embed Geopolitical Premium

The Dutch power price averaged €74.9/MWh in Week 9, which was €7.8/MWh lower than the previous week. Similar to the previous week, wind generation remained above the seasonal climate norm for most days in both the Netherlands and Germany. However, on a week-on-week basis, total wind output declined by approximately 10% in Germany and 7% in the Netherlands.
The primary driver behind the price decline was the sharp increase in solar generation, particularly in Germany, where output rose by nearly 110% compared to the previous week. In the Netherlands, solar generation increased by around 30% week-on-week. This substantial growth in solar output significantly suppressed prices during daylight hours. Over the weekend, the Netherlands experienced around five hours per day with average prices close to €0/MWh, weighing on the overall weekly average.
We also entered a markedly warmer period, with temperatures throughout most of the week running 10–13°C above the climate norm, reducing heating demand and further pressuring prices. In addition, interconnector capacity on the NorNed cable (Netherlands–Norway) was limited to 420 MW during the week, restricting export potential and reinforcing bearish price dynamics during solar peak hours.
During the week of February 23 to February 27, 2026, Dutch TTF natural gas prices traded in a tight, volatile range, oscillating between €30.89/MWh and €32.22/MWh. Early-week bearishness, driven by milder weather and steady Norwegian flows, was quickly erased by escalating US-Iran geopolitical risks. By Friday, February 27, prices settled at €31.96/MWh as the market braced for potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This risk premium was amplified by fragile EU storage levels, which dipped below 31% (significantly lower than the 40% seen in 2025), leaving the region highly sensitive to any supply shocks ahead of the weekend.

On Monday (March 2), the rally gained momentum, with TTF month-ahead contract prices closing at €46.5/MWh. By Tuesday morning, March 3, the surge had intensified significantly, with prices reaching €65/MWh around 12:00 PM. The escalation was driven by QatarEnergy’s complete suspension of LNG production, affecting approximately 20% of global supply as a result of the US–Iran war. The volatility spilled over into the power sector, where the German Power Base-Load Week 11 contract rose from €83/MWh on February 27 to €116/MWh on March 3.