Power Prices Fall on Strong Wind Generation as Gas Volatility Persists
Short term:
The Dutch day-ahead power price averaged €88.8/MWh over the week, up modestly from €87.2/MWh the previous week, an increase of €1.7/MWh. Day-ahead price highs were observed mid-week, especially on Wednesday (€143.3/MWh), largely due to reduced wind and solar generation limiting low-cost supply. At the other end of the spectrum, Sunday recorded the week’s lowest day-ahead price (€14.5/MWh), as subdued demand across the Northwest European region (linked to holiday schedules) coincided with exceptionally high wind and solar output. This oversupply, combined with weak load, pushed prices into negative ranges of around -€50/MWh during peak solar hours. This week’s movements continued the pattern of high short-term volatility, driven by variable renewable output and shifting demand fundamentals. Wind and solar generation, in particular, remain dominant drivers of daily spot price swings.
Electricity (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
Long term:
From the perspective of longer-term contracts, Dutch Baseload Cal-27 declined by €7.7/MWh to €91.9/MWh, while TTF Cal-27 prices edged lower week-on-week, falling by around €3.9/MWh to €40.2/MWh. These moves reflect a partial unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium following reports of potential ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran mediated by Pakistan, though price action remained highly volatile. As of April 7, uncertainty around escalation in the Strait of Hormuz continued to drive sharp market swings. With diplomatic efforts failing, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a new strict ultimatum demanding that Iran reopen the strait or face attacks on power plants. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes have targeted bridges and rail infrastructure in Iran, further heightening market concerns over regional stability and potential energy supply disruptions.
Weekly changes
Base (€/MWh)
Peak (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
CO2 (€/MWh)
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