Low Renewables and Thermal Outages Drive Dutch Power Sharply Higher

The upward correction was driven by a combination of weak renewable output and supply-side constraints. Wind generation collapsed across the region, while solar output also came in remarkably low for the season, pushing spot prices in the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany to clear around €80–100/MWh during solar hours on most days of the week. The tightness was most acute mid-week, with Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday reaching baseload highs of €123.0/MWh, €121.8/MWh, and €130.5/MWh respectively, alongside peak prices climbing to €115.3/MWh, €115.5/MWh, and €118.4/MWh. Compounding the renewable gap, unplanned coal outages and reduced biomass availability removed more than 1 GW of capacity from the stack, tightening margins further and forcing the market higher up the merit order during peak hours. The weekend brought some relief, with Sunday clearing at €70.9/MWh as demand softened, though prices remained well above the lows recorded in the prior week’s holiday-driven oversupply. 

Meanwhile, TTF day-ahead prices averaged €45.1/MWh, broadly stable week-on-week against €45.3/MWh in Week 18, as the unresolved situation in the Strait of Hormuz continued to sustain the geopolitical risk premium and drive volatility across the gas complex. Prices eased towards the end of the week, with TTF settling at €43.9/MWh on Friday compared to €46.2/MWh on Monday, though the softer close was not enough to shift the weekly average.