Wind Collapse Drives Dutch Power Prices Higher Despite Softer Gas

Renewable dynamics were mixed. Solar generation provided some bearish offset, increasing by 10% in the Netherlands and 22% in Germany due to favorable irradiation conditions. However, this was insufficient to compensate for the significant drop in wind output, which declined by 71% in the Netherlands, 56% in Germany, and 80% in Belgium. The collapse in wind generation was the dominant driver, tightening supply fundamentals across the region. 

On the fuels side, TTF front-month gas prices declined by €6/MWh week-on-week to €42.6/MWh, providing some marginal relief to thermal generation costs. The broader weakness in TTF (down from €48.6/MWh the previous week) was largely attributed to easing geopolitical risk premiums, following progress in US–Iran negotiations and partial de-escalation of Middle East tensions. While physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained into early Q3, forward markets reacted swiftly, with the 2026 curve flattening materially.  

Despite this, the impact of lower gas prices was overshadowed by renewable scarcity, particularly during peak hours, which also increased week-on-week by €12.1/MWh to €71.4/MWh. Price spikes in the week also highlighted the extent of system tightness. On 18 June, hours 20 and 21 cleared above €450/MWh in Netherlands, reflecting extremely tight conditions. These spikes were driven by near-absent wind generation during evening peak demand across the Benelux and Germany, creating strongly bullish market conditions. Additionally, reduced import capability further exacerbated the situation, as the unavailability of the NL–NO interconnector limited access to cheaper Norwegian imports, reinforcing upward price pressure during critical hours.