Heatwave Drives Evening Price Spikes While Progress in US–Iran Talks Weighs on Gas Forwards 

Power Prices (Spot) 

Dutch day-ahead power prices surged in Week 26, with baseload averaging €139.1/MWh, up €32.4/MWh week-on-week, while peakload increased to €88.0/MWh, a gain of €16.7/MWh. The sharp increase was driven by exceptionally high temperatures across Northwest Europe, which boosted electricity demand for cooling. At the same time, weak wind generation significantly increased residual load forcing greater reliance on thermal generation. Gas-fired power plants were further constrained by reduced maximum output as high temperatures decreased plants efficiencies, tightening system margins and driving steep evening price spikes. Wednesday provided the clearest example of these tight market conditions, with Dutch day-ahead prices surging from the minimum of €62/MWh during the solar hours to €784/MWh at 19:00 and €799/MWh at 20:00, as solar generation faded and demand remained elevated. Despite these extreme evening prices, exceptionally strong solar generation associated with the heatwave kept prices well below the marginal cost of gas generation throughout solar hours, helping to offset the evening spikes and limiting the increase in average peakload prices. 

TTF Day-Ahead Gas 

TTF day-ahead prices remained closely coupled to the month-ahead contract, with market direction continuing to be driven primarily by developments in the US–Iran negotiations rather than short-term European gas fundamentals. Prices softened over the week as reports of encouraging progress in the negotiations and a roadmap towards a broader agreement reduced concerns over prolonged disruptions to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Although geopolitical uncertainty remains slightly elevated, the prospect of improved shipping conditions and a gradual easing of supply risks weighed on prompt gas prices, leading the TTF day-ahead contract to decline to an average of €41.1/MWh. troomprijzen (Spotmarkt)