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15% drop in Dutch baseload prices amidst surge in wind power generation

Short term:

Last week, Dutch baseload power prices dropped by 15%, averaging 74.83 €/MWh, primarily due to a sharp increase in wind generation. While solar output remaining stable compared to the previous week, wind generation surged to 343 GWh—an increase of 204 GWh week-on-week. This significant boost in renewable output helped suppress prices, even as gas markets experienced temporary volatility.

On Sunday, August 3rd, several European countries experienced extended periods of negative pricing between Hour 10 to Hour 17. The Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany saw seven consecutive hours of negative prices, while France experienced eight. This was driven by a combination of low weekend demand, strong wind generation across the BENELUX region and Denmark, and the return of France’s Belleville 2 reactor following an unplanned outage. These factors resulted in a significant oversupply of electricity, pushing prices into negative territory. In the Netherlands, power prices fell as low as -10,08 €/MWh for one hour, reflecting the impact of excess renewable generation on a low-demand day. The Claus C power plant, with a capacity of 1.3 GW, remained offline from July 30 to August 3 due to external factors.

Electricity (€/MWh)

Gas (€/MWh)

Long term:

After some movement in the previous weeks, the CAL-26 contract for gas, power and coal did not see a significant movement in the last week. The TTF dropped by 0.5 €/MWh to 33.2 €/MWh, the power and coal contracts remained unchanged at 83.3 €/MWh, and 92.4 €/ton. The EUA contract for CAL-26 moved up by 1.5 €/MWh. The combination of movement in gas and carbon prices might have stabilized the power contract.

Weekly changes

Base (€/MWh)

Peak (€/MWh)

Gas (€/MWh)

CO2 (€/MWh)

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