Dutch Power CAL-27 Climbs on Bullish Gas Movement
Short term:
Last week, Dutch power prices averaged 101.4 €/MWh, only 2.5 €/MWh lower week-on-week, reflecting a mixed fundamental outlook. Wind generation declined significantly across both the Netherlands and Germany (down 20–25%), while solar output increased by 40–45%. At the same time, gas prices trended higher, rising by 4.3 €/MWh to an average of 55.4 €/MWh.
At the start of the week, strong wind conditions combined with the lowest gas prices of the week resulted on Monday clearing at 73.3 €/MWh, the weekly low. In contrast, Friday recorded the highest price at 131.4 €/MWh, with hourly prices during the morning and evening peaks reaching approximately 190 €/MWh.
Although higher solar generation suppressed prices during daylight hours, it contributed to slightly elevated evening peak prices, as thermal power plants faced start-up costs to meet demand after solar output declined.
Electricity (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
Long term:
European gas prices surged last week following missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facilities. This led QatarEnergy to declare force majeure, triggering concerns over a potential prolonged disruption to LNG supplies to Europe. The geopolitical shock drove Dutch TTF prices to multi-year highs and introduced a sustained risk premium into the market.
Toward the end of the week, prices eased as immediate supply concerns diminished and weather forecasts turned milder. Nevertheless, the TTF CAL-27 contract increased by 8.8 €/MWh, settling at 45.6 €/MWh. In contrast, the EUA contract declined by 1.4 €/ton to 70.1 €/ton, while the coal CAL-27 contract rose by 5 €/ton to 113.1 €/ton.
The bullish movement in gas markets translated directly into power markets, with the Dutch power CAL-27 contract increasing by 10.6 €/MWh to settle at 99.1 €/MWh.
Weekly changes
Base (€/MWh)
Peak (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
CO2 (€/MWh)
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