Dutch Power Prices Decline in the Day-Ahead Market on Strong Renewables, while the Forward Curve Strengthens on Gas and Carbon
Short term:
Dutch day-ahead power prices averaged €82.7/MWh, down €20.2/MWh week-on-week. The highest baseload price was recorded on Wednesday at €96.9/MWh, while the lowest cleared on Sunday at €54.4/MWh. On an hourly basis, prices rarely exceeded €120/MWh and remained above €40/MWh for majority of the most bearish periods in the week.
The primary driver behind the week-on-week decline was a significant increase in renewable generation. Wind output rose by approximately 80% in the Netherlands and 50% in Germany. Solar generation increased by around 15% in the Netherlands, though it declined by roughly 10% in Germany, limiting further downside potential.
Demand also softened, with consumption in the Netherlands and Germany falling by around 1.5%, supported by higher temperatures. Additionally, gas prices contributed to the bearish sentiment, declining by €1.9/MWh week-on-week to average €31.6/MWh.
Electricity (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
Long term:
On the forward curve, the CAL-27 TTF gas contract rose by €0.6/MWh to €27.3/MWh. The increase was largely driven by heightened geopolitical risks, notably renewed tensions between the US and Iran, which provided upward support across the curve. Additional concerns around relatively low European storage levels and ongoing geopolitical instability—including stalled Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations—helped sustain risk premiums across longer maturities. However, bullish sentiment was partially offset by strong LNG supply signals, including progress at the US Golden Pass LNG facility, which limited the magnitude of the rally.
The EUA contract also strengthened, increasing by €3.2/ton to €75.8/ton. Supported by firmer gas and carbon prices, the Dutch power CAL-27 contract gained €4.2/MWh, settling at €77.9/MWh. Coal prices followed the broader upward trend, rising by €6.8/ton to €94.9/ton.
Weekly changes
Base (€/MWh)
Peak (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
CO2 (€/MWh)
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