Dutch Power Prices Fall as Temperatures Cool and Wind Rebounds After Heatwave

The week began on a firm footing as wind output remained exceptionally low while power demand continued to be supported by lingering effects of the last-week heatwave. As a result, day-ahead prices from Monday to Wednesday cleared between €145.6/MWh and €200.4/MWh. Despite a notable increase in solar generation during Week 27—up 13% in the Netherlands and 21% in Germany versus the previous week—the key driver of the bearish price correction was the sharp pickup in wind generation from Thursday onwards. Wind output moved above seasonal averages across both the Netherlands and Germany and remained elevated for the remainder of the week. This significantly increased renewable supply and pushed day-ahead prices lower, with clearing prices falling to €67.2–75.9/MWh towards the end of the week, ultimately weighing on the weekly average. On the interconnection front, the NL–NO interconnector remained unavailable throughout the week, with the ongoing maintenance outage extended until 14 July.

Meanwhile, TTF day-ahead gas prices strengthened during Week 27, averaging €43.2/MWh, up from €41.1/MWh in the previous week (+€2.1/MWh). The bullish gas sentiment was underpinned by growing concerns around LNG supply reliability from Qatar. QatarEnergy expanded its force majeure declarations to additional buyers, indicating further delivery disruptions through the summer and into early September. At the same time, LNG transit activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained subdued despite its formal reopening, with vessel tracking data showing a sharp decline in Qatari crossings compared with earlier expectations. These developments kept supply-side concerns firmly in focus and provided support to European gas markets, with EU gas prices rising by more than 7% over the week, marking the first weekly gain in four weeks. However, the supportive impact from higher gas prices was more than offset by the significant increase in renewable generation, particularly wind, resulting in lower Dutch power prices overall.