Dutch Power Prices Gain on Low Wind, While Gas Risk Premiums Unwind

During Week 16, forward markets experienced broad downward pressure. The TTF May-26 contract saw the sharpest decline, falling €4.9/MWh to €38.8/MWh. Longer-dated benchmarks also retreated, with the Dutch Baseload Cal-27 dropping €1.8/MWh to €84.1/MWh and the TTF Cal-27 decreasing €2.0/MWh to €33.2/MWh. These corrections were primarily driven by a Friday sell-off following Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to commercial traffic, which triggered a sharp unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums. However, market sentiment has since shifted back toward bullish territory; on, April 20, 2026, TTF May-26 is trading up around €40/MWh. This reversal follows a weekend of escalating violence, during which Iranian forces fired on merchant vessels in the Strait and U.S. Marines seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to breach the naval blockade. With the U.S. blockade remaining strictly enforced and Iran once again threatening to shutter the waterway, the prospect of a long-term impasse has heightened volatility in energy futures, as the risk of a significant supply shock remains elevated.