Dutch power prices rebound after a bearish week, while gas remains stable
Short term:
After a bearish week, Dutch power prices rebounded, clearing at 87.3 €/MWh, a sharp 34.8 €/MWh increase compared to the previous week. The rise was mainly driven by a notable decline in renewable generation. Both the Netherlands and Germany saw wind output fall by around 40%, while solar dropped by about 30% in Germany. Although Dutch solar production rose by nearly 50%, it was not enough to offset the bullish effects from reduced wind generation in both countries. Asset availability improved as well, with an additional ~2 GW compared to the prior week. Meanwhile, gas prices remained broadly stable, averaging 32.2 €/MWh, just 0.3 €/MWh higher week-on-week.
Electricity (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
Long term:
The CAL-26 contracts were relatively steady. TTF prices held within last week’s range, as market sentiment pointed to limited impact from the EU’s proposed 19th sanctions package on Russia. While the measures are expected to cause some rerouting of supply flows, LNG availability remains unaffected. Norwegian gas flows continued to increase gradually despite adjustments in maintenance schedules, supporting stable supply. The CAL-26 TTF edged up by 0.2 €/MWh to 32.4 €/MWh, while EUA contracts fell by 1.6 €/ton to 78.0 €/ton. Dutch power for CAL-26 moved sideways, closing at 84.7 €/MWh.
Weekly changes
Base (€/MWh)
Peak (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
CO2 (€/MWh)
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