Dutch Power Prices Slide as Renewables Surge and Gas Markets Turn Bearish
Short term:
Last week, Dutch power prices averaged €103.9/MWh, down €18.1/MWh week-on-week. Peak-hour prices fell even more sharply, declining by €23.9/MWh to €111.6/MWh.
The main driver behind the price drop was a strong increase in renewable generation. Dutch wind output rose by approximately 50% week-on-week, while German wind generation increased by only around 5% on average. In Germany, wind output was notably stronger in the first half of the week before easing later on. Solar generation in the Netherlands increased by around 60%, providing additional downward pressure on prices, particularly during peak hours. In contrast, German solar output remained somewhat subdued due to snow coverage.
Further price pressure came from the gas market, where TTF gas prices declined by €4.4/MWh to an average of €35.9/MWh, reinforcing the bearish power price environment.
Electricity (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
Long term:
Gas markets softened amid a decline in spot LNG freight rates and reduced delivered LNG costs into Europe, which weighed on hub prices. This move reflected a correction from strong gains seen in late January, with no major immediate supply disruptions reported. Toward the end of the week, prices recovered slightly as revised colder weather forecasts, falling wind output, and lower Norwegian Continental Shelf and LNG imports tightened prompt balances. However, these supportive factors emerged too late to offset earlier losses.
As a result, front-month TTF prices fell by approximately €3/MWh, while the CAL-27 TTF contract declined by €0.6/MWh to €27.1/MWh. EUA prices dropped by €2.5/t, adding further bearish pressure. In contrast, coal prices increased by €1.7/t, reaching €87.1/t. These fundamentals pushed the Dutch CAL-27 power contract down by €3.2/MWh to €76.7/MWh.
Weekly changes
Base (€/MWh)
Peak (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
CO2 (€/MWh)
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