Dutch Power Prices Surge 35% Amid Sharp Wind Decline

The average Dutch power price increased sharply this week by 26.2 €/MWh, reaching 101.7 €/MWh. This jump was largely driven by a significant drop in renewable generation. After a very windy weekend, wind conditions weakened from Monday onwards, falling below seasonal norms across the BENELUX region and Germany. The reduction in renewable supply increased the residual demand that prompted a reliance on conventional power generation which drove up the prices . On 7 October, the Dutch power prices spiked to 277.01 €/MWh in the morning and 272.86 €/MWh in the evening.
In the Netherlands, wind production remained below seasonal averages throughout the week. Although wind levels in Germany returned to near-normal on Friday and Saturday -easing Dutch prices slightly towards the end of the week compared to earlier days. Week-on-week, wind generation declined by approximately 50% in the Netherlands and 20% in Germany. Solar output also saw a drop, down by approximately 30% in both countries. This substantial reduction in renewable supply was a key driver of the overall increase in weekly average power prices across the BENELUX region and Germany.
TTF gas prices increased by €1/MWh week-on-week, averaging €32.5/MWh for Week 41. TTF prices opened higher at the start of last week (October 7–10), driven by expectations of stronger gas demand amid cooler temperatures but quickly reversed as updated forecasts pointed to a short-lived cold spell. Bearish sentiment was further supported by easing geopolitical risks amid progress toward a Gaza peace deal and robust LNG arrivals to Europe. Weather forecasts remains the key short-term driver, as markets weigh early heating demand against supply fundamentals.