Dutch Power Prices Slide as Renewables Surge and Gas Markets Turn Bearish

Dutch day-ahead power prices averaged €102.93/MWh in Week 7, down €0.9/MWh compared to the previous week.

Wind generation declined sharply, falling by around 30% in both the Netherlands and Germany. Solar output also weakened, dropping 9% week-on-week in the Netherlands and approximately 23% in Germany. Despite the lower renewable output, power prices still moved lower. One contributing factor was France’s significantly stronger wind performance: French wind generation increased by 66% week-on-week, creating a surplus in France. This surplus enabled cheaper imports into neighboring markets, including the Netherlands, thereby easing overall price levels.

Another key factor behind the softer power prices was the decline in gas and carbon markets. Last week, Dutch TTF natural gas prices saw a significant correction, dropping from €36.4/MWh to around €32.9/MWh, driven primarily by updated weather models forecasting milder temperatures across Northwest Europe, which eased near-term heating demand. Despite this relief, the market remains cautious, as participants continue to monitor US-Iran geopolitical tensions that could potentially disrupt global energy flows. Meanwhile, carbon prices fell by €8/Ton to €70.7/Ton, further reinforcing the bearish sentiment.