High renewable output and negative spark spreads

The Dutch spot power price averaged €63/MWh last week, showing minimal deviation from previous weeks (week 21: €66/MWh, week 22: €60/MWh). Wind output was again above average, while frequent cloud cover reduced solar production. On the evening of June 2, wind generation dropped significantly in both the Netherlands and Germany, prompting reliance on conventional generation and driving prices to around €240/MWh in both countries.
Throughout the week, gas-fired plants were often the marginal producers during morning and evening peaks. However, due to low demand and high renewable output, clean spark spreads were generally weak—except for the brief rise on Monday evening.

The price gap between the Netherlands/Germany and France widened. On June 5, France saw 18 consecutive hourly prices at or below zero. While prices didn’t turn deeply negative, they hovered around €0, reflecting France’s continued excess supply, which, as in 2024, can’t always be exported. Unlike last year, however, the French TSO hasn’t yet announced structural export restrictions.

Forward markets rebounded from the week 22 declines. TTF recovered by 2 euros to €36.3/MWh, while CO₂ gained 3 euro, closing at €73.5/EUA. Dutch power forwards rose €4–6: July was up €4.4 to €76.8/MWh and August increased by €5 to €79.5/MWh. Clean spark spreads for these months remained roughly unchanged at -€19 and -€16/MWh, respectively.