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Higher Wind Offsets Solar Weakness, Limiting Dutch Power Price Gains
09.06.2026
Korte termijn
Dutch power prices averaged €91.6/MWh, down marginally by €0.6 week-on-week, as stronger renewable supply later in the week offset early bullish conditions. Wind generation rose sharply across Northwest Europe, with output increasing by 100% week-on-week in Germany and 260% in the Netherlands. However, the impact of higher wind supply on prices was largely muted by weaker solar generation and a strong start to the week. Solar output declined materially across the region. Generation fell by 25% in Germany and 28% in the Netherlands, with additional weakness in Eastern Europe, where output dropped by 24% in the Czech Republic and 13% in Poland. This broad-based reduction in solar availability limited the usual midday price compression and kept peak prices elevated. The weekly peak averaged €67.1/MWh, approximately €24 higher week-on-week. Further support came from reduced imports, with the NorNed interconnector under maintenance (26 May–3 July), limiting Norwegian flows into the Netherlands. This tightened supply—particularly off-peak—and supported baseload prices.
Prices in the week were clearly front-loaded. The week opened strongly, with day-ahead prices at €144.3/MWh on Monday and an evening peak of €321.1/MWh (hour 20), while Tuesday remained elevated at €122.4/MWh amid weaker renewable output. From midweek, prices eased as wind generation picked up, falling below €100/MWh and reaching €40.2/MWh on Sunday. This late-week softness ultimately weighed on the weekly average.
TTF day-ahead prices edged higher, averaging €48.0/MWh (+€0.9 week-on-week), holding a steady discount of around €0.40/MWh to the month-ahead contract throughout the week. Given that weekly variation in gas consumption typically remains low at this time of the year, the upward pressure was driven primarily by the month-ahead contract rather than spot-specific fundamentals. The bullish move in TTF month-ahead was driven by persistent geopolitical risk and tightening global LNG balances. Unresolved US–Iran tensions and stalled negotiations over Lebanon sustained a supply risk premium, while stronger Asian LNG demand supported by warmer weather forecasts and uncertainty around China’s import reduction raised concerns over tighter spot cargo availability for Europe.
Electricity (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
Lange termijn
Dutch CAL-27 remained broadly stable, edging down by €0.2 to €91.4/MWh. In fuels, coal strengthened by €2.3/Ton to €106/Ton, while TTF gas increased by €1.2/MWh to €37.2/MWh. In contrast, EUA carbon prices softened, declining by €3.7/Ton to €79.6/Ton, partially offsetting the upward pressure from fuel markets.
Wekelijkse veranderingen
Base (€/MWh)
Peak (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
CO2 (€/MWh)
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