Lower Wind Output Pushes Dutch Power Prices Higher Despite Solar Gains 

The main driver was a significant drop in wind generation across the Benelux region and Germany. Wind output decreased by 35% in Belgium, around 50% in Germany, and 36% in the Netherlands compared to the previous week. On 18 May, the Dutch evening peak price reached €229.41/MWh during hour 20. Meanwhile, average peak power prices for the week declined by €3.9/MWh to €64.7/MWh, due to stronger solar generation—approximately 20.5% higher in the Netherlands and 24% higher in Germany week-on-week. 

Over the weekend, solar generation increased substantially across the continent, including Eastern Europe, pushing prices into negative territory. On Saturday (23 May), the Netherlands recorded consecutive 7 hours of negative prices, with a minimum of –€31.73/MWh at hour 13. On Sunday, this extended to 8 consecutive hours of negative pricing, with the lowest price reaching –€75.75/MWh, again around hour 13. 

On the gas side, TTF day-ahead prices firmed in Week 21, averaging €49.6/MWh, up €2.3 week-on-week. Prices rose early in the week, peaking at €51.9/MWh on Wednesday, before easing to €48.0/MWh. The upside was driven by tighter supply and elevated geopolitical risk. Unplanned outages in Norway reduced pipeline flows into Northwest Europe, while maintenance at the Freeport LNG terminal in the US raised concerns over global LNG availability. Additional support came from strike risks at Australian LNG facilities and intensifying competition for spot cargoes. Underpinning all of this, the unresolved US–Iran situation continued to sustain a firm geopolitical risk premium, as ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled diplomatic efforts kept the market exposed to further supply-shock scenarios.