Power Prices Fall on Strong Wind Generation as Gas Volatility Persists

The Dutch power price averaged €87.2/MWh in week 13, marking a €14.2/MWh decline compared to the previous week. This decrease was primarily driven by a significant increase in renewable generation across the BENELUX region and Germany.

Although solar generation fell by around 8% in Germany and 15% in the Netherlands week-on-week, a sharp rise in wind output more than compensated for this decline. Wind generation surged by approximately 75% in Germany and 86% in the Netherlands. Despite elevated gas prices, the period from Tuesday to Thursday was particularly windy in the Netherlands and Germany, contributing to lower power prices during these days. Wednesday stood out as the windiest day, with baseload prices dropping to as low as €42.2/MWh in Netherlands.

Meanwhile, TTF contract fell from around €59/MWh on 23 March to approximately €54/MWh by 27 March, averaging at €55/MWh for the week. Despite the drop, volatility remained extremely high. The 60-day historical daily volatility stayed around 11%, indicating that the week-on-week price move remained within the historical volatility range. Prices continue to react sharply to geopolitical developments—particularly risks around the Strait of Hormuz and critical gas and oil infrastructure—while conflicting signals from US and Iran have kept the market highly reactive, driving frequent intraday swings.