Weather and Gas Volatility Lift Spot Prices; Long-Term Softens on EUA Declines
Short term:
Last week, Dutch power prices averaged €121.97/MWh marking a €7.4/MWh increase week-on-week. Baseload prices remained above €110/MWh throughout the entire week. The highest baseload price in the week for Netherlands was on 28 January, reaching €135.8/MWh, driven primarily by very low wind generation in the BENELUX region and only near-average wind conditions in Germany.
Overall, despite a 20% week-on-week increase in wind generation in Germany, prices moved higher due to a 25% week-on-week decline in wind generation in the Netherlands and an approximately 30% week-on-week drop in solar generation across both Germany and the Netherlands. In Germany, in particular, snow coverage on solar panels significantly reduced solar output, further contributing to higher prices.
One of the more notable days was Tuesday, 27 January, when Germany experienced near-normal wind conditions, while wind generation was especially high in the Netherlands and Belgium. This resulted in a wide NL–DE spread of -€13.45, with the Netherlands clearing at €117.16/MWh.
In Week 5, TTF gas prices rose sharply averaging €40.3/MWh due to forecasts of cold weather in mid February and concerns over tightening storage fundamentals
Electricity (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
Long term:
CAL-27 TTF rose by €1.2/MWh to €27.7/MWh, with intraday volatility driven by strong heating demand and low storage levels, as inventories neared seasonal lows and reinforced bullish sentiment. Supply concerns were further amplified by U.S. LNG disruptions and ongoing U.S.–Iran geopolitical tensions. In contrast, EUA prices fell sharply by €7.3/ton to €83.6/ton, while coal prices increased by €2.8/ton to €85.3/ton. As a result of these offsetting commodity movements, the Dutch CAL-27 power contract declined by €1.5/MWh to €79.9/MWh.
Weekly changes
Base (€/MWh)
Peak (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
CO2 (€/MWh)
Sign up for our weekly market report
Enter your details below and receive the weekly market report in your mailbox for free.
Want to know more about us?
Contact us via our contact page or find out more about our company on the about us page.