Solar pushes power prices towards zero

Last week, from Monday to Sunday, spot prices in the afternoon hours dropped towards 0 €/MWh across multiple countries due to an exceptionally high amount of solar power generation, especially for this time of year. On Wednesday afternoon, prices even fell to -20 €/MWh. Satellite images of Europe captured the clear skies for a week straight. At the same time, the Nordics experienced strong winds. Additionally, water reservoir levels in Scandinavia remain high. Norway, for example, has significantly more water available for hydropower generation than in previous years, contributing to lower prices. Outside of the afternoon hours, gas and coal-fired power plants were still needed to meet demand. The average Dutch spot price for the week settled at 89 €/MWh.

Power prices were not only driven down by the abundance of solar power. Gas prices also declined again last week. A large portion of the market is currently speculating on a potential resumption of gas transit via Ukraine. At the end of last year Russian flows were halted, forcing several countries, including Slovakia, to seek expensive alternatives. Last week, Slovakian Prime Minister Fico announced negotiations with Ukraine to import Azerbaijani gas via Ukrainian pipelines. In addition to Slovakia, multiple European countries, including Hungary, are pressuring the EU to consider restarting Russian gas transit through Ukraine as a viable option. Meanwhile, a DTEK gas production facility in Ukraine was bombed by Russia, causing it to halt production. As a result, gas prices fluctuated sharply, with the April contract briefly reaching 36.5 €/MWh. Prices eventually settled 4 euros lower relative to last week at 40 €/MWh.

CO2 prices continued their decline. The December 2025 EUA contract fell by 2.5 euros to 68.6 €/EUA. Dutch power for April dropped by 4.5 euros, closing at 72 €/MWh. Coal prices remained relatively stable, further narrowing the variable cost gap between gas and coal-fired plants. The clean spark spread for April was around -29 €/MWh, while the clean dark spread stood at -21.5 €/MWh.