Prices remain firm after the heatwave subsides in Europe but builds in Northeast Asia
Short term:
After the heatwave in the first week of July, the temperatures cooled down in Week 28. This relieved a bit of tightness in the system with the average Dutch spot prices for the entire week clearing at 87.1 €/MWh compared to 93.3 €/MWh in the previous week. This is still relatively high compared to the first part of the summer.
In contrast to previous weeks—where solar hours mainly cleared at low levels around €0–€20/MWh—this week was relatively firm, with prices around €40–€50/MWh in the early afternoons. This could be attributed to multiple reasons. The second half of the week remained low on wind and solar generation in the Netherlands, and though some of the plants such as the Eemshaven B and Amer 9 came back online, others like Claus C and the Eemshaven A were still under maintenance.
Northeast Asia saw soaring high temperatures boosting the cooling demand and lifting the TTF prices due to the competition for LNG cargos. The gas price increased by 1.5 €/MWh from 33.1 €/MWh to 34.6 €/MWh.
Electricity (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
Long term:
The CAL-26 contract for the Dutch base load power price rose by 1.4 €/MWh to 84.8 €/MWh. One of the drivers could be the TTF for CAL-26 which went up by 1.1 €/MWh to 34.9 €/MWh. The strong gas prices in the spot could have moved the calendar contract upwards. However, the EUA dropped by 1.1 €/MWh to 72.4 €/MWh. The coal prices for CAL-26 increased by over 5% reaching 98.1 €/ton, and therefore for the front years, the clean dark spread, which is a profitability indicator for coal assets is very negative.
Weekly changes
Base (€/MWh)
Peak (€/MWh)
Gas (€/MWh)
CO2 (€/MWh)
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