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Dutch Power Prices Drop Amid Wind-Driven Weekend Price Crash

Short term:

This week, the average Dutch power price for Week 40 settled at 75.5 €/MWh, which was a decrease of approximately 14% compared to the previous week. The week started off bullish due to extremely low wind generation across the BENELUX region and Germany, tightening renewable supply. As a result, baseload prices in the Netherlands were elevated during the first three days, clearing between 111.3 €/MWh and 123.3 €/MWh. However, wind conditions gradually improved mid-week, culminating in a surge over the weekend. The BENELUX region and Germany experienced very high winds, with peak wind generation reaching nearly 9.9 GW in the weekend in the Netherlands. This led to a 20% week-on-week increase in wind output across the country. On Saturday, 4 October, the Netherlands recorded an average clearing price of -1.11 €/MWh, with 19 hours (based on the average of 15-minute interval) of negative prices. On Sunday, 5 October, the average clearing price was 7.5 €/MWh, with 17 hours in the negative price territory. These two days of extremely low prices significantly dragged down the overall weekly average, offsetting the earlier price spike.

Electricity (€/MWh)

Gas (€/MWh)

Long term:

The CAL-26 contracts declined by 0.7 €/MWh, settling at 84.0 €/MWh, primarily due to decrease in Coal and TTF contracts. While the EUA contract rose by 3.2 €/ton to 81.2 €/ton, this gain was offset by a 1.3 €/ton drop in Coal prices to 84.8 €/ton and a 1.3 €/MWh decline in TTF prices to 31.1 €/MWh for CAL-26. The drop in TTF prices last week was mainly driven by strong supply conditions. European storage levels remained high, easing fears of winter shortages, while weaker Asian demand freed up LNG cargoes that were redirected to Europe. This combination of ample storage and increased LNG availability weighed on prices, reinforcing the market’s bearish tone.

Weekly changes

Base (€/MWh)

Peak (€/MWh)

Gas (€/MWh)

CO2 (€/MWh)

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