Dutch Power Prices Rise on German Wind Weakness and Higher Gas Prices

Despite broadly similar solar generation levels in both the Netherlands and Germany, and a 40% increase in Dutch wind output compared with the previous week, prices remained elevated. The main driver was Germany, where wind generation declined by approximately 30% week-on-week. Lower renewable output in Germany tightened regional fundamentals and lifted Dutch day-ahead prices, particularly during the weekdays. Market conditions eased over the weekend as stronger wind generation in both the Netherlands and Germany coincided with lower demand. This pushed Dutch day-ahead prices down to €83.3/MWh on Saturday and €69.6/MWh on Sunday, helping to offset some of the gains seen earlier in the week. On Sunday, the Dutch day-ahead market recorded seven consecutive hours of negative prices, as strong wind and solar output exceeded demand during midday hours.

The TTF averaged €53.7/MWh for the week up by €6.4/MWh, as a renewed layering of geopolitical risk offset the earlier relief that had followed the US–Iran ceasefire framework. The day-ahead and month-ahead remained tightly coupled, with the TTF DA-MA spread averaging around €0.00/MWh (ranging from -€0.18 to +€0.31/MWh), confirming that the move was driven by the broader curve repricing rather than spot-specific fundamentals. The dominant driver remained the US–Iran situation: despite ongoing ceasefire talks, the US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes, while Israeli strikes on Lebanon added further uncertainty over whether the truce would hold, prompting Iran to once again threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in protest and continue targeting Gulf states. Compounding the supply-side concerns, the recovery in Qatari LNG flows remained fragile, with Ras Laffan output still constrained and physical transit through the Strait well below pre-war levels.